Weigh the Evidence

On January 20th 2017, a man named Andrew Wakefield posted a picture of himself on social media on his way to the inauguration banquet for the new President of the United States.

This picture resulted in significant backlash from the scientific community. Why the backlash and what’s the big deal?

Wakefield is the original anti-vaxxer. In 1998 Wakefield published a paper in the journal Lancet claiming there was a link between autism and vaccinations. Following this publication there were many letters sent to Lancet criticizing the data and the interpretation. By 2004, 10 of the 12 original authors had pulled their support for the paper’s conclusion, and the study was partially retracted. Following a more extensive investigation, The General Medical Council ruled that Wakefield had fabricated a conclusion based on fraudulent data and had massive conflicts of interest in place. This hallmark study was then fully retracted in 2010 and the UK’s medical regulator revoked Wakefield’s license for a series of ethical violations. Wakefield was sent into academic disgrace.

Since 1998, not a single publication out of the hundreds of high quality studies performed have found a link between autism and vaccines. A lack of repeatability in and of itself is not necessarily a bad thing as scientists are continually refining and updating their previous conclusions. The issue with Wakefield is that he doubled down on his disgrace and published a book in 2014 falsely stating that vaccines cause autism. He then directed and appeared in the film “Vaxxed,” a movie that alleges an array of conspiracies are in place to promote vaccines. Wakefield continued to push his original message even though the link between autism and vaccinations had been thoroughly debunked. As of 2017, public health experts estimate that Wakefield is personally responsible for thousands of preventable child deaths.

Despite the irrefutable evidence, the new President seems to agree with Wakefield and has stated numerous times that there is a link between vaccinations and autism. On top of this, the Counselor to the President Kellyanne Conway recently coined the phrase, “alternative facts,” a concept that lacks any semblance of logic or reason. If a piece of information is true, it is called a fact. If it is not true it, is not a fact. There is no such thing as an alternative fact.

The bigger issue identified here is that US leaders are displaying an inability to engage in evidence-based reasoning. This disregard for evidence by world leaders has made elucidating the correct answer to a question vs. “fake news” or “alternative facts” more difficult than it should be.

To guard yourself (vaccinate?) against this Orwellian theme, my advice is to gather as much information as possible about a topic and then weigh the evidence you have obtained. Critically think about what you are hearing, reading and seeing across multiple outlets. Perhaps picture it like a sliding rule or a teeter-totter, and as the weight of evidence builds towards being more correct, begin to accept it as fact. For example, the evidence that climate change is real is supported by the weight of evidence. Sea surface temperatures are the highest they have ever been, sea levels are rising at an ever-accelerating rate, the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is higher vs. any time in the last 650,000 years, September sea ice has shrunk by 35% since 1979, ocean acidity has increased 30% since the Industrial Revolution; the list goes on.

Researching a question to generate evidence, and then applying this new-found information to invoke positive change is fundamental to humanity’s progression. When people (especially leaders) ignore the evidence, progression is blunted and the planet and all its inhabitants suffer the consequences. More children die of preventable diseases and the earth becomes less habitable for future generations.

To get back to the original question posed, the fact the Andrew Wakefield has the President’s ear is symbolic of an increased aversion to evidence-based reasoning. Going forward, my feeling is that we should arm ourselves with fact-based information and wield it against erroneous statements made by individuals close to us. In this way, we positively affect change in an evidence-based fashion, and help push humanity in the forward direction.

Healthy Living by Brennan Smith, PhD

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